International Security Yearbook 198485 by Barry M. Blechman & Edward N. Luttwak

Author:Barry M. Blechman & Edward N. Luttwak [Blechman, Barry M. & Luttwak, Edward N.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: General, Reference
ISBN: 9780813302065
Google: EaS8MQEACAAJ
Goodreads: 8967102
Publisher: Westview Press
Published: 1985-06-17T00:00:00+00:00

Jordan

The year 1983 had been eventful for Jordan. King Hussein had been strongly tempted to respond positively to President Reagan's peace initiative. He had held lengthy talks with PLO leader Yasir Arafat, and the general outline of an agreement between the two had been reached. But Arafat had not been able to persuade other leaders within the PLO to go along with him, and in April the king had announced publicly that he was no longer willing to participate in any negotiations concerning the West Bank. Henceforth the responsibility would lie fully on the shoulders of the PLO.

Some suspected that this was little more than a ploy to put pressure on Arafat. But it also seemed to reflect the king's deep belief that there was little for Jordan to gain from another round of diplomacy, particularly in light of the apparent inability of the United States to persuade Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. After all, if Israel could not be persuaded to leave Lebanon, what hope might there be that Israel would eventually withdraw from the West Bank, to say nothing of Jerusalem. And some possibility that Israel would agree in the end to virtually full withdrawal was the sine qua non for Jordanian participation in negotiations. As a result of this judgment, Jordan remained very much on the sidelines of Middle East diplomacy through most of 1983 and into 1984.

By early 1984, however, there was some hint that King Hussein might find a new avenue back to a role in peace negotiations, this time without depending on PLO endorsement. The idea seemed to have been that Jordan would proceed to reconvene its parliament, including Palestinian representatives from the West Bank. If this could be portrayed as a step toward creating legitimate representation for the Palestinians in the occupied territories, and if these representatives were then to approve a move toward negotiations with Israel by King Hussein, perhaps this could substitute for the PLO's endorsement of such a role. This, at least, was the speculation of many observers as King Hussein announced that parliament would be reconvened and that elections would be held to fill eight vacant seats in the lower house, including some representing districts in the West Bank.

The elections attracted considerable attention within Jordan, and for the 8 seats at stake in the lower house there were 102 candidates. Fifty percent of the registered voters turned out, and in something of a political surprise three of the eight seats were filled by candidates who were identified as sympathetic to the Muslim Brethren. This raised the prospect of growing Islamic influence in Jordan, and could only serve to make King Hussein cautious concerning any negotiations with Israel. It was thus perhaps no surprise that no further moves toward participation in the peace process could be detected in 1984, and instead the King indicated his preference for a broadly based international conference on the Middle East, including both the United States and the Soviet Union as participants. This was a

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